The AL East Dogfight has begun

The American League East dogfight has officially begun, and for me, it began in two different cities last night, involving four AL East teams. Before I get into the events of last night, I want to break down the East team, and where I see them going (NOTE: I am being honest based on what I have seen in these 5 teams, I don't just watch Yankee Games, I watch ALL teams and most games).

1 - New York Yankees

To me, it has been clear for some time now that the New York Yankees, the defending AL East and AL Champs will likely repeat as AL East champs. This season, the Yankees have played 10 games against the east, and they are 6-4, only losing one series, against the O's this past week at Camden Yards.

The one problem that stands in the way of the Yankees is their starting pitching. After losing Luis Gil for half the season due to a lat strain (Gil has began his throwing program), and Gerrit Cole to Tommy John Surgery for the 2025 season and part of the 2026 season, the Yankees starting pitching depth has deteriorated. two of every five games will be pitched by Will Warren or 39 year old Carlos Carrasco. While Warren has pitched ok, and his stuff is good and it's more fine-tuning with a young kid, Carlos Carrasco has been awful on the road. He is 2-0 with a 3.36 ERA in his 3 starts at home in 2025, but he has a 0-2 with a 9.26 ERA on the Road. If the Yankees are serious about defending as AL East and AL Champs and winning the 2025 World Series, they need to acquire a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, or sooner.

The Yankee offense has impressed in the first month of the year. After losing Juan Soto to the New York Mets in free agency this past December, one of the biggest question marks was how will the offense survive. I would say they are doing pretty great. The Yankees have had two games this season where they began the games with three straight home runs, and four home runs in the first inning.

The Yankees are getting unexpected contributions from the likes of Trent Grisham, Ben Rice and more production than expected from Paul Goldschmidt. They have gotten so much production from these players that it's hard to not see them in the lineup.

Giancarlo Stanton is expected to return from elbow tendonitis at the beginning of June creating a log jam at the DH position with Ben Rice, who is one of the hottest players in the Yankee lineup.

The Yankees recognize that they need Rice's bat in the lineup, so it's likely that when Stanton returns, J.C. Escarra, the backup catcher, will be sent to AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre and Rice will become the backup catcher, taking reps behind the plate, at DH on Stanton off-days and will play first base if Goldschmidt needs a day off.

Other players like Anthony Volpe, Cody Bellinger and Austin Wells have been inconsistent over the first month, but the swings and results have been better over the past few games, specifically Volpe who is looking to finally break out:

Oh, and the Yankees have this guy named Aaron Judge who is pretty impressive.

2 - Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are clearly the second best team in the AL East. The Red Sox offense looks legit. After a slow start from Raffy Devers, he has been really productive and a big peice in the offense getting going.

Alex Bregman, the Red Sox premiere offseason offensive acquisition has looked like he is worth every cent of that contract. Bregman is currently in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak, and during that streak, he is batting .400 with 16 hits, 3 Homers and 8 RBI's.

The Red Sox also promoted rookie Kristian Campbell to the major league club, and five games in, he signed an extension to stay with the Red Sox for the next 8 seasons.

Campbell has delivered so for for the 'Sox becoming an early candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2025, by putting up fantastic numbers, not just by rookie standard, but with the best in MLB. I think this kid is going to be a Star for the Sox.

While the offense is good, and is top 10 in MLB, their pitching has been a bit of a concern, a theme in the AL East. It's not just the starters, that are posting a combined 4.02 ERA, but the bullpen is posting a combined 4.05 ERA, fifth worst in the AL.

Last night is the perfect example of my point. The Red Sox offense put up six runs early, and starter Lucas Giolito looked solid, only surrendering 3ER in 6 innings of work in his first start of the IL in 2025.

Then, the Bullpen took over. Cora called on reliever Garrett Whitlock, who gets a flyout, then a single, another flyout, then a single by Vladdy, followed by a big fly by Anthony Santander to tie the game in the seventh inning.

Then, in the 10th inning, with Vladdy as the ghost runner on second, reliever Justin Slaten got Santander to fly out, but intentionally walked George Springer (after having a 3-1 count), then intentionally walked Daulton Varsho to face Alejandro Kirk who walked it off for the Jay's.

A complete bullpen implosion for the Red Sox. Look, I know it's May 1st, but it's losses and collapses like last night that make it difficult for me to see them taking the East over a team like the Yankees who are better at certain things than the Red Sox. It's also important to note that the Sox lead all of MLB in errors, with 38. Those extra outs given to the other teams are little things that cost teams games, but I believe the Sox will make the postseason as a wildcard team in 2025.

3 - Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are always a sneaky team. One of the biggest things the Rays seem to excel in is development of minor league players. Chandler Simpson made his MLB Debut two weeks ago, and has been tearing it up so far:

When the Yankees were in Tampa at GMS a few weeks back, I got to see Simpson over a 3-game sample, and this kid is fast and electric. He broke up Max Fried's no hitter with an infield single, and man did he bust it down the line. And like I say, when you put the ball in play, good things happen, and Simpson is doing exactly that.

The Rays starting pitching has also been solid, posting a combined 3.74 ERA so far in 2025. Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen are leading the staff with ERA's under 3.

The Bullpen is posting a 2.90 ERA, but has been bitten by the long ball this season, surrendering 15 homers, which is fifth worst in baseball. I think the Rays will be competitive in 2025, but I don't see them as a playoff team just yet, but crazier things have happened with the Rays, like 2011.

4 - Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are a puzzling team to me. Their starting pitching in 2025 has not been that bad so far, it has been the offense and the bullpen that have been issues.

After an offseason of some disappointment, being rejected time after time by many free agents, the Jays were able to get a deal done with franchise icon Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a massive 14 year extension, keeping him in the great north for his career.

Everything else about the Blue Jays have stunk. The Jays don't score, or hit for power:

There team is kind of mid. The starting pitching has been very inconsistent over the past month and are bottom 10 in all of MLB.

I think the most consistent thing for the Blue Jays this season is Jeff Hoffman as closer. Hoffman was signed as a free agent this past offseason after Baltimore and Atlanta passed on him due to his medicals. The Jays took a flyer on him and boy did it pay off. Hoffman is pitching great for the Jays and is almost an automatic save for the Jays, which is nice for them because every win is important.

5 - Baltimore Orioles

I am going to say this very bluntly - The O's STINK. I know they just took 2/3 from the Yankees, but those two wins are more of a reflection of Yankee lack of pitching that O's being good. The one game they had an actual, viable MLB starter face them in the three-game set, they were being perfected through 5 innings. The O's scored two runs, one earned off the Yankee Bullpen in this three game set. The one run, an RBI single off mop-up man Tyler Matzek in a game the O's were down 15-3.

The O's offense is just pathetic. They don't score runs. The Yankees scored more runs in a game then the O's did all series.

There pitching staff is in complete shambles. When Gibson returned off the IL this week, the O's were looking for some rotation stability, and they got the direct opposite, being 5 in the hole before stepping to the plate.

Charlie Morton who was signed this past offseason has been a complete joke at this point and at the age of 41, he should hang it up now. It sounds like the O's are moving him to the Bullpen because of how much of a liability he is as a starter right now.

Tomoyuki Sugano has been the best starter, by far, and his stuff is FILTHY. The splitter at the bottom of the zone was just devastating the other night.

A lot of the young players for the O's have also struggled so far. Players like Jackson Holliday are essential for the O's to have success in 2025. While he is on a mini hot streak, the overwhelming majority of his albeit, short, has been underwhelming for the #1 overall prospect in the 2023 MLB draft. Might he have been rushed because of his last name, perhaps?

This is not just from a 3 game set, it's been the whole season. The O's are not plating with a sense of urgency, or like they care. They are kind of just along for the ride right now.

The O's need a spark, and it could have came last night when young player Heston Kjerstad stole second and the second basemen, Pablo Reyes came down and sacked him in the face. This was a complete accident, and momentum carried Reyes down. Kjerstad started chirping at the Yankees and the Yanks, specifically Anthony Volpe (as if nobody else on the field would fuck him up if they had the chance), begun chirping back. It lead to a whole lot of standing around, kind of like a middle school dance, but that could be a spark for the O's to get things going, because it is getting late, early for Baltimore.

Quick shoutout to Cedric Mullins who is about to get PAID if these stats keep up in 2025, because he has been phenomenal:

For right now, the AL East is just as competitive as it is kind of mid, with solid offensive teams and a bunch of mid pitching staffs and some bullpens that are in shambles heading into the month of May.